Amsterdam, May 11, 2026, 17:19 (CEST)
Nebius Group surged on the Nasdaq Monday, with shares climbing $14.64, or roughly 8.3%, to $191.69. The move adds to the company’s strong rally so far in May, pushing the stock as high as $196.39 during the session. Investors are bracing for the upcoming first-quarter report, which will show whether the Amsterdam-based AI cloud firm is converting its big AI deals into actual data-center output.
Investors will get Nebius’ results ahead of the U.S. open on Wednesday, May 13. The company’s call kicks off at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. This release is under the microscope: the market isn’t just chasing headlines about AI deals anymore. Now, the focus is on whether Nebius can actually source GPUs, lock in power, and launch new sites fast enough to keep pace with demand.
BofA bumped up its price target on Nebius to $205 from $175 and maintained its Buy rating, The Fly reported. The note highlighted new data-center capacity coming online and pointed to the impact that Nebius’s hefty capital spending could have on margins. Capital expenditure, or capex, refers to investments in assets like servers, chips, and data centers.
Uttam Dey at Seeking Alpha labeled Nebius’s update “The $18B Question,” saying investors are eyeing a hefty capex rollout in Q1 and almost total capital lock-in. According to Dey, Nebius is set to ramp up around 1 gigawatt of GPU capacity—and do it more quickly than CoreWeave, its U.S. neocloud rival. The term “neocloud” here means a cloud provider purpose-built for AI—not the usual catch-all computing. Seeking Alpha
Nebius has jumped into the spotlight after a string of deals, the latest being a $2 billion investment from Nvidia announced in March. Nvidia plans to collaborate with Nebius on AI factory builds, inference, and Rubin-based systems—a move that cements Nebius’ role in the AI infrastructure trade. Inference, for the record, refers to deploying a trained AI model. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called this stage “another inflection point” for AI. NVIDIA Investor Relations
Back in March, Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh said Meta had locked in a five-year agreement that could climb to roughly $27 billion. Under the terms, Meta gets $12 billion in guaranteed capacity from several sites, with delivery kicking off in early 2027. There’s also an extra $15 billion on the table—if Nebius can’t place that planned capacity elsewhere, Meta can claim it. Volozh described the arrangement as a catalyst for ramping up Nebius’s core AI cloud infrastructure.
Microsoft locked in a multi-year deal for exclusive AI infrastructure at Nebius’s upcoming Vineland, New Jersey data center, with service kicking off later in 2025. Back then, Volozh called the terms “attractive,” expecting the move to accelerate AI cloud expansion for the company through 2026 and after. Nebius
Nebius is taking steps to build out its software stack. On May 1, it struck a deal to acquire Eigen AI for roughly $643 million in cash and Class A shares—an effort to bolster its managed inference platform, Nebius Token Factory. “Capacity-scarcity world,” is how Roman Chernin, Nebius’s co-founder and chief business officer, put it. Eigen AI CEO Ryan Hanrui Wang said their combined teams want to let developers “run models reliably in production.” Nebius
Competition is fierce. Reuters reports that Meta’s agreement fits into a larger scramble among tech giants—everyone racing to secure limited GPU and power resources from AI-focused cloud firms like Nebius and CoreWeave. The major cloud providers aren’t standing still, either; they’re still pouring resources into expanding their own data centers.
The trade’s got complications. Nebius poured some $2.1 billion into capex for the fourth quarter, but revenue came in at $227.7 million—short of what analysts had penciled in. Net loss? That widened to $249.6 million, according to Reuters back in February. The company is eyeing an annualized revenue run-rate between $7 billion and $9 billion by end-2026. Still, any hiccups with power, GPUs, or construction might push those numbers out to later quarters.
Financing remains a hurdle. In March, Nebius wrapped up a convertible-notes deal, raising around $4.34 billion in original principal. The company said it’s putting that money toward building out data centers, investing in its full-stack AI cloud, expanding its reach, and securing key components like GPUs. Convertible notes, which can turn into equity under specific terms, offer growth capital but risk diluting existing shareholders if converted.
The spotlight on Wednesday’s report: is the company actually matching the narrative that’s already priced in? When it comes to Nebius, focus has shifted. The market isn’t just counting signed contracts anymore; it wants to see just how quickly capacity is rolling out.
